Empire's End

My city's bleeding. Two nights in a row of riot; this morning, it's eerily quiet, too quiet even for a Sunday morning under social isolation.

I would say I think the Republic has fallen, but the truth is the Republic fell long ago. What we're seeing now is the end of the Empire. The last of the Caesars-- the last of the Romanovs-- struts his petty stage while the tide rises. The ruling class is too out of touch, too mired in its own self-interest, to make even cosmetic gestures toward unity. Let me be clear: that applies to the Democrats just as much as the Republicans. It's just that the DNC official platform is not as overtly toxic.

For what it's worth, and I'm claiming no special expertise, I believe we're headed for a constitutional crisis before the end of the year. There are several possible proximate causes: An executive order against vote-by-mail. Federal intervention in civil unrest, against the will of state or local authorities (read: military occupation). An attempt to delay or cancel the election, or a post facto attempt to deligitimize an outcome against the incumbent. Selective withholding of stimulus funds-- at one point, there was talk of that being directed against sanctuary cities. Executive orders against local government's social isolation measures.

A constitutional crisis is a true crisis in a mathematical sense: a cusp with multiple possible outcomes. I'm in no position to guess which are the most likely. But one that seems increasingly plausible is the fragmentation of the Union, in response to the complete ineffectiveness and active corruption of the federal government. The various state pacts being formed in response to the pandemic give us a glimpse of the map that might result.

Portland-- Oregon-- is not the worst place to be. And riots are not the end of the world. You get riots where people are neither comfortable and complacent, nor too beaten down to demand change.

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